Launch
Launch is the quintessential component of space and the primary driver of the direction of space economy development. While there is outsized attention being given to launch, in the near future it is justified. In the relative future, attention will dissipate away from launch to other components of the developing space economy.
During the settlement of the New World, the ship building industry played its role but became more routine and not the center of the transatlantic economy. In a similar trajectory, the space sector’s transportation vehicles will become more of a routine business and the creative forces of humanity will pivot to the settlement of space with its vast challenges that will need to be addressed. Current launch is also defined by the gravity well of Earth, which is quite strong.
The gravity well of our moon and Mars are not as difficult to overcome. Launch from Earth will become just one of the components of transportation. Propulsion in all sectors outside of Earth’s immediate gravity will become far more important. With the establishment of more off-earth colonies, the centrality of Earth based launch will diminish and become less and less important over time. Commerce will not be confined to Earth and the space economy alone. Commerce will be conducted mostly between the different sectors of space with Earth to space commerce being only one of many sectors.